US Economy 2008-2009 and the National dept

The financial crisis of 2008 has been called the worst crisis since the great depression. At the same time the stock markets of the United States, adjusted for dividends, are at the same level as when the year began and the US economy had a positive GDP growth during the first quarter. What is going on in the US, where is the economy heading? Perhaps the growing national dept can give the answer.
National dept of the United States
The United States faces several hard economic dilemmas. A significant problem is the growing deficit in the federal budget. The national dept of the United States at the end of April 2008 was $9.377 billion (source), or $30.862 per citizen (source). The national dept as percentage of GDP is growing at a high rate.
    US GDP in 2007 reached $13.970 billion, or $46.000 per citizen (source), the national dept being 68% of GDP (source). A serious problem is that the dept is growing faster then the American economy. While US GDP only grow at an annual pace of 0.6% in the first quarter 2008 (source), the dept continues to grow an undiminished rate. During 2007 the national dept increased from $8680 billion to $9229 billion (source) or with $549 billion.
    The dept thus grew over 6% (from $8.68 to $9.23 trillion), while real GDP-growth only accumulated to 2.2% during 2007 (source). The national dept of the United States has grown with over $500 billion for five years in a row (source).
    This year's federal deficit is predicted at $410 billion and another $407 billion 2009. The budget for 2009 however only includes $70 billion for war expenses in Iraq and Afghanistan, $119 billion less then this year. If the war would continue during 2009, spending and deficit would increase (source).
    As of today the situation in Iraq seems to be heading the wrong way.

Increase of violence in Iraq
Bush's military budget for 2009 amounts to $588 billion, but only includes $70 billion for war costs in Iraq and Afghanistan. That is $119 billion less than this year (source). In order to keep a balanced budget there would have to be an almost immediate end to sectarian violence and terrorism in Iraq in the beginning of 2009.
    Violence in Iraq however seems to once again escalate after a brief period of calm in the end of 2007 and the beginning of 2008. In December -07 only 23 US soldiers fell victim to terrorism and IED attacks, down from 126 in may the same year. During Q1 and Q2 2008 deadly attacks against US soldiers have increased once again (source) and for two months in a row, between February and April, US casualties in Iraq are up. In april 52 US soldiers were killed in action in Iraq, more than double than in December (source).
    May so far has begun as a violent month, with 10 coalition casualties in only 7 days.
    A safe Iraq seems far away, and the $70 billion budget for war expenses in Iraq and Afghanistan 2009 will probably have to be increased, thus further increasing the US deficit and dept (source).
    In Iraq also the second problem for US economy can be find: Oil, or rather the lack of oil.

United States hurt by rising oil prices
The United States is the largest importer of oil in the world. Each and every single day the United States imports about 13 million barrels of crude oil and other products made by oil (source). With an oil price at $120/barrel the US pays $1.56 billion a day to foreign countries for oil, and $570 billion a year just for oil.
    The fast rally in oil prices have taken the US society with surprise and led to galloping trade deficits. US trade deficit increased to $62.3 billion in February, with oil at $32.5 billion (source).
    The deficit of February times 12 amounts to $748 billion, or about 5.4 % of GDP. Oil prices have continued to increase in March and April reaching $120/barrel, and February only has 28 days (29 this year). A larger trade deficit is likely to occur in the future, especially since US imports of crude oil and products during February only was 12.6 million barrels a day, down from 13.5 in January.
    In May US imports of oil usually rise due to the driving season. Last year's import was 14.1 million barrels a day in May (source). At today´s oil prices of $120/barrel that would amount to $52 billion for imports of oil and its products in May.
    The American society is an oil consuming society more than any other society in the world. US cars are big and require more fuel than any other car fleet in the world. Rising oil prices have hurt the US car manufacturers, despite a weak and favorable dollar rate. Due to lower interest rates and large trade deficit the dollar has fallen sharply against other currencies, the weakened dollar should benefit the US car manufactures and lead to higher market shares both on the US market and overseas. The weak dollar should be a breath paus for the three large US car manufacturers Ford, GM and Chrysler.
    Car sales however fell 12, 16 and 23% for Ford, GM and Chrysler in April, and they together only held 47.5% of the market in the US - the lowest ever. Car sales are the lowest in 13 years. (source). In April gasoline prices reached $3.62 per gallon. Despite a weak dollar the US car manufacturers lost market shares, while the Japanese brands Toyota and Nissan sold 3.4 and 6.7% more cars, selling more fuel-efficient cars.
    The situation for the oil dependent flight industry is even worse. The largest 4 airlines in the world, when looking at passengers carried, all comes from the United States (source). Delta Airlines, one of the worlds largest airlines, made a loss of $6 billion in the first quarter of 2008 (source).

The Future of the United States
Despite a weak economic outlook for the United States and falling house prices, the GDP rose 0.6% during Q1 and consumer spending increased 0.4% between February and March (source). The imbalance in the economy however hasn't ended, rather it is increasing. The Trade deficit of February was a high $62.3 billion. Rising oil prices and the start of the driving season could bring the trade deficit to record levels in May, oil prices currently trading at $120 per barrel.
The slow growth in the economy will increase the national dept as percentage of GDP. The national dept in ratio to the GDP could become the highest in 50 years (source).